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17 May, 2012 Thu
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從1990年代開始，世界已見識到驚人的轉變。曾經是高風險市場的亞洲、南美洲、東歐，似乎變得比英國或美國股票市場成為更好的投資標的。原因是「Chimerica」的崛起─中國和美國經濟聯姻的產物。但是貧窮的中國存款戶借錢給富有的美國消費者，到底有沒有道理？
Since the 1990s, once-risky markets in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe have become better investments than the UK or US stock market. The explanation is the rise of ‘Chimerica’, the economic marriage of China and the United States. But does it make sense for poor Chinese savers to lend to rich American spenders? |
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人生充滿風險！這就是為甚麼人們會去買保險。但面對一個巨大和突如其來的災難時，國家必須介入。Professor Ferguson在卡特里娜風災過後來到新奧爾良，探討為何自由市場無法提供充分防護以對抗天災。他對答案的追尋使他回溯現代保險在19世紀的起源，以及在二次大戰後日本福利國的誕生。福利國制度出了甚麼問題？智利為何會在1970及1980年代從事全世界最激進的社會保險改革？如今美國和歐洲福利國正面臨一個類似的報應日，我們又吸取了甚麼教訓？
Life is a risky business, which is why people take out insurance. But faced with an unexpected disaster, the State has to step in. Professor Ferguson travels to post-Katrina New Orleans to ask why the free market cannot provide adequate protection against catastrophe. His quest for an answer takes him to the origins of modern insurance in the early 19th Century and to the birth of the welfare state in post-war Japan. |
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何解股票市場可以令經濟產生泡沫，以及成為蕭條的主因？教授為了追溯起源，決定前往最早有合營股票公司的阿姆斯特丹和巴黎，尋找當中的原因。
Why do stock markets produce bubbles and busts? Professor Ferguson goes back to the origins of the joint stock company in Amsterdam and Paris. He draws telling parallels between the current stock market crash and the 18th-century Mississippi Bubble of Scottish financier John Law and the 2001 Enron bankruptcy. He shows why humans have a herd instinct when it comes to investment, and why no one can accurately predict when the bulls might stampede. |
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